The aggravation of the Iran-Israel conflict caused by the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is fraught with great problems not only for the Middle East, but also for the entire world. It is already obvious that Iran’s confrontation with Israel and the US may become “long-lasting”, which will be a heavy burden for these countries. Iran is clearly not going to capitulate, and the Israeli blitzkrieg has obviously failed, although there are a number of clear tactical successes. But Iranians are resiliently enduring the hardships, which have so far only served to foster patriotism, and have rallied around their government.
Regime change in Iran is clearly not expected in the near future, which is the main goal of the Islamic republic’s opponents. At the same time, President Trump and his team have weakened their position in the United States, as they have clearly demonstrated to the world that they are not to be trusted. Today, both Democrats and Republicans criticize Trump in the U.S. Congress 1. Even among his supporters, a majority, according to polls, don’t want a U.S. war with Iran.
However, Israel will suffer the most. For it, a long confrontation is ahead, fraught with considerable problems. The Israelis are clearly stronger, but Iran is able to poison the life of the Jewish state for months to come. Already now the inhabitants of Israel, under numerous Iranian air strikes, can clearly feel how significantly their lives have changed for the worse. And to what extent the notorious “steel dome” has turned out to be not a panacea, but propaganda.
By the way, the longer the Israeli-Iranian war goes on, the easier it will be for Iran to achieve a decent peace.
It is already obvious that China and Russia will not leave Iran, their strategic ally, without support. It is still unclear how it will be expressed, but information about Chinese heavy transport planes with cargo for Iran has become public, and the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Moscow and his reception not only by his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, but also by Russian President Vladimir Putin is a convincing enough demonstration.
And coinciding with this event, the speculation that Iran may receive modern Russian weapons is at least thought-provoking. Moscow has already clearly demonstrated its independence and consistency in pursuing its goals in spite of all sanctions and the West’s full support for Zelensky’s regime in Ukraine. And although by and large Russia’s hands are now tied by the war in Ukraine, Iran may well be given something substantial to do there. And there are many options.
This is as far as the official confrontation is concerned. However, the arbitrariness of Israel and the United States is obviously increasing socio-political tensions around the world. There is already talk that the war with Iran has brought the world even closer to World War III.
Nor should we underestimate the consequences of Israel’s and the United States’ confrontation with the Islamic world as a whole. Although there is by and large no unity among Muslim countries, to the luck of their non-believers, it is not impossible that some group of terrorist fanatics will suddenly want to punish the United States for its strikes on Iran. The tragedy of September 11, 2001, when only 19 terrorists – natives of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Lebanon and Egypt – sent 2977 people (not only Americans, but also citizens of more than 90 countries) to the grave in just a couple of hours, not counting about 6 thousand wounded, clearly showed how this is possible.
By the way, it was the events of September 11 that led to the US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. The sad ending of the Afghan expedition, the virtual flight of the American military and the Taliban’s rise to power are well known. Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein was overwhelmed by a wave of violence and terrorist acts, which turned the country into a hotbed of terrorism. In particular, according to experts, the invasion of Iraq and the ensuing chaos was the main reason for the strengthening of the terrorist group Islamic State. And in general, attempts to impose Western democracy in the Middle East on the bayonets of the US Marines turned out to be a bad idea, resulting in thousands of casualties and destabilization of the situation in the region and in the world as a whole. And if after the end of the Cold War the United States was perceived as a winner and guarantor of world order, now the image of the United States has been seriously undermined. According to the U.S. Watson Institute, more than 929,000 people have died in military conflicts directly or indirectly initiated by the U.S. since 9/11. 38 million people became refugees 2 . These millions have their own relatives, co-religionists, like-minded people, and simply fellow countrymen. Will they love America after that, and will there be any revengeful people in such a mass of victims? The question is rhetorical…
In addition, according to the same institute, the losses of the American military in these wars amounted to about 7,000 people. And this is without taking into account the losses of private military companies and NATO allies.
The possibility of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently insisted on by the Iranian parliament, should also be mentioned. About 20% of the world’s oil supplies are made through this strait, and not only a real attempt to prevent this, but even a threat to do so can almost double oil prices. The expert community assumes that due to the play of this issue, the cost of Brent oil may reach the level of $130 per barrel and higher (while at the beginning of the conflict August futures for Brent oil cost $76 per barrel).
The EU and China may suffer most from the Hormuz blockade. But no one, including the United States, will be left out. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a new international economic crisis, as the disruption of this route would have a domino effect: from a sharp jump in energy prices to a deterioration of economic conditions in countries susceptible to changes in the cost of imports and logistics.
All of the above also applies to Iran’s economy, which by and large has no point in actually blocking the Strait of Hormuz, only inflicting losses on itself, provoking its adversaries to new strikes and irritating friendly China. But just talking about it is enough the effect is still guaranteed. However, if you take the Islamic republic to the extreme, tankers better not go there.
It is worth mentioning separately the reason for the strikes by Israel and the United States against Iran, which was the Iranian nuclear program. It is obvious to any rational person that this program posed no threat to neighboring states. And the reason for launching missiles was purely far-fetched. I remember that the reason for the attack on Iraq was a hypothetical Iraqi chemical weapon, which was never found.
At the same time, it is worth remembering that in addition to the five legitimate nuclear powers – the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China – at least four other countries are believed to possess nuclear weapons. These are Israel, as well as Pakistan, India and the DPRK. According to open sources, Israel possesses nuclear weapons dating back to the 1960s, although it does not admit it. Again, it is known from open sources that these four countries have about 490 nuclear warheads, which, by the way, is not much less than the number of nuclear warheads possessed by England and France combined.
The very existence of such an “underground” nuclear club is a Polichinel secret, but no one in the United States is in a hurry to launch missiles against Israel or Pakistan. And how could it be otherwise – they are allies, again double standards. And no one is in a hurry to go to war, say, with India, whose population is already almost one and a half billion people, or with North Korea, which has an army of one and a half million fanatical fighters.
Iran, on the other hand, is much safer. Although only at first glance…