The Guns Fall Silent, The Fallout Begins
What is being called a ceasefire—more accurately, a fragile cessation of hostilities—between Israel and Iran marks the end of a dramatic, destructive military episode. But this is not peace, and it is certainly not victory. It is, at best, an exhausted pause. The so-called truce was not the result of a negotiated settlement, but a tacit, unstable consensus: for now, Israel and the United States on one side, and Iran on the other, have simply stopped shooting.
Even this precarious equilibrium is already fraying. Israel has accused Iran of launching additional missiles post-agreement, prompting Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Katz to vow retaliation. Whether this halt holds remains uncertain. But if this is indeed the end of a military campaign launched under the false pretext of stopping Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb—a program it is not actively pursuing—it is not the ending envisioned in Jerusalem or Washington. The campaign aimed to topple the Iranian regime. That effort has failed. What fell instead was something far more dangerous: the nuclear non-proliferation regime.
A Campaign Running on Fumes
The collapse was foreshadowed by Israel’s mounting logistical crisis. Reports revealed dangerously depleted interceptor stockpiles, particularly of the Arrow system. As Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly hinted at scaling down operations, it became clear the campaign was not winding down due to diplomacy—but depletion.
Even before any ceasefire was floated, Israel had reportedly reached out to Iran via intermediaries to suggest mutual de-escalation. The message was not one of triumph but necessity. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump signaled his reluctance to be dragged into another extended war. His public remarks focused not on regime change, but on oil prices and inflation—a pivot from grand strategy to electoral survival.
Trump’s anxious social media posts—including false claims that Russia might arm Iran with nuclear weapons—betrayed his unease. He even thanked Iran for providing advance warning of retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases—an extraordinary rhetorical retreat. Though he declared U.S. responses effective, his tone was that of a politician seeking the exit, not a victor dictating terms. The war threatened to become another forever war—one he had no appetite to fight.
Military Setbacks, Political Resilience
Iran absorbed heavy military blows. But it responded with coordinated missile strikes, exposed gaps in Israel’s defense systems, and showed unexpected resilience. Even prominent regime critics rallied in national defense. A particularly revealing failure, the Israeli strike on Evin Prison—reportedly housing political prisoners—prompted open condemnation, including from Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a prominent former detainee held elsewhere in Iran. Promoting the Shah’s son as a viable alternative to the regime only highlighted how out of touch foreign narratives were with Iranian political reality.
Rather than crumbling, the Islamic Republic consolidated. Its missile program proved formidable; its air defenses, though fragmented, held. Most crucially, it managed to evacuate and conceal key elements of its nuclear infrastructure before they could be struck.
The Real Casualty: The Non-Proliferation Regime
While the strikes failed to dismantle Iran’s leadership or its nuclear program, they may have fatally wounded the global non-proliferation regime. Iran has now ended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Its nuclear program is no longer monitored. Intelligence about enrichment levels, centrifuge types, or stockpile locations is now obsolete. The West is flying blind.
And worse: Iran has precedent. North Korea has validly withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and built a bomb. Iran may now do the same.
If so, the dominoes may fall quickly. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt have all indicated they would pursue nuclear weapons if Iran does. Egypt—already unstable—is an especially alarming case. A regional nuclear arms race is no longer speculative. It’s imminent.
The stated goal of the strikes—halting Iran’s uranium enrichment—was always tenuous. Negotiations to resolve the issue were reportedly progressing. But they were sidelined as the U.S. and Israel deceitfully plotted their strikes. Those talks are now derailed. Iran’s program is now hidden, unverified, and perhaps more determined than ever to build weapons. The NPT’s credibility, already eroding, may not survive this rupture.
A Strategic Debacle
This wasn’t merely a failed military adventure—it was a historic geopolitical blunder. Iran did not fall. Its nuclear program was not dismantled. Its society did not fracture. Instead, the global regime to contain nuclear weapons has unraveled.
For decades, the NPT held the line against proliferation. That line has now been breached.
Some may argue that Israel and the U.S. sent a message: that they can strike Iran, infiltrate its defenses, and damage its infrastructure. But Iran survived, adapted, and struck back. And the message it sends in return—especially to other states under threat—is that nuclear deterrence may be the only real insurance against invasion.
The U.S. and Israel are likely to continue their campaign through sabotage, cyberattacks, and covert operations—including assassinations and efforts to create and exploit internal divisions. And Iran’s compromised security apparatus may struggle to prevent this—unless Moscow or Beijing intervenes to help restructure and fortify Tehran’s internal defenses.
In trying to force regime change in Iran, the U.S. and Israel may have changed something else entirely: the rules of the international game. The era of cautious restraint may be giving way to one of unrestrained proliferation.
This isn’t just a strategic failure. It’s a disaster for global security. And its consequences may reverberate for decades.