🎯 Why Rare Earths Matter — and Why China Controls Them
- Seven critical metals—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium—were placed under export restrictions by China on April 4, 2025. These are vital for high-performance magnets in missile guidance, radars, EVs, and more wsj.com+14csis.org+14reuters.com+14.
- China still mines ~60% and processes ~90% of global rare earth supply apnews.com+5reuters.com+5theguardian.com+5.
- As Rare-earth element tech matured in the 1980s, China leveraged lax environmental controls to out-scale U.S. competitors, creating a modern supply-chain chokehold .
🚨 Impact on Israel’s Air Defense
- Israel’s Arrow-3 interceptor and Iron Dome radar systems rely heavily on magnets made from these rare earths.
- Washington Post reports Israeli interceptors are near depletion, and senior U.S. officials warn Iran’s missile inventory exceeds combined Israeli–U.S. stockpile hklaw.com+15washingtonpost.com+15washingtonpost.com+15kdwalmsley.
substack.com+1youtube.com+1. - With conflicting signals from China, Boeing and Israel may have to ration interceptors, forcing choices between civilian and military targets — a decision stark with human and ethical costs.
🎥 Video Explainer
🌐 The Geopolitical Domino Effect
- China’s export controls are part of a broader export licensing strategy, covering dual-use minerals and components, justified under national security concerns theguardian.com+10washingtonpost.com+10taylorwessing.com+10.
- U.S. downstream defense firms face major disruption due to these restrictions reuters.com+6theguardian.com+6apnews.com+6.
- A U.S.–China truce in London (June 11) provided limited export relief—but key “military-use” rare earths remain tightly controlled ft.com+15mining.com+15reuters.com+15.
Washington Scrambles—but Can It Keep Pace?
The Pentagon has invested over $439 million since 2020 to build a domestic rare-earth supply chain—from mine to magnet—aiming for completion by 2027 washingtonpost.com+2csis.org+2mining.com+2.
However, even optimistic projections show current U.S. magnet production reaching just ~1,000 tons by end‑2025, compared to China’s ~138,000 tons in 2018 csis.org. Experts warn that replacing China’s industrial scale may take 5–10 years, and in the meantime, Beijing retains tremendous leverage washingtonpost.com.
On the Ground in Israel
Despite government reticence, far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir admitted Israeli intelligence underestimated Iran’s “enormous striking power” . Reports suggest Tel Aviv’s infrastructure is significantly damaged, aircraft are diverting to Cyprus, and interceptor reserves are near exhaustion.
🔚 What It All Means
- China is uses rare earths as a lever, achieving strategic advantages off the battlefield.
- Israel’s missile defense woes are not just military—they’re a supply-chain crisis born of geopolitical adversity against China and Russia by the United States and its allies.
- The U.S. and its allies face an urgent lesson: technological dominance hinges on material security.
- Expect intense efforts to decouple from China—through new mines (e.g., Lynas in Australia, MP Materials in the U.S.) and expanded processing capabilities, but real alternatives are years away csis.orgcsis.org+3mining.com+3washingtonpost.com+3.
💬 Your Take?
- Is China’s rare earth strategy a masterstroke or act of coercion?
- Can the U.S. and Israel rush to build stockpiles or new supply lines?
- What does this reveal about modern warfare, where the battlefield extends beyond missiles to embargoes and trade controls—tools first used by the U.S. and its Western allies, now mirrored by China, forcing the West to taste a dose of its own bitter medicine?