A Grim Prediction that Came True
On February 24, 2024, I wrote:
I hoped I would be proven wrong. But less than a year later, the direction of German policy—under Chancellor Friedrich Merz—has confirmed that prediction.
Chancellor Merz, former head of BlackRock Germany
Merz has authorized the use of Taurus cruise missiles by Ukraine, something his predecessor Olaf Scholz refused to do. But this decision is more than just a shift in military aid policy—it’s part of a broader and far more troubling trend.
German Soldiers, German Targets—in Russia
Although Ukrainian forces can press the launch button for the missiles, German military personnel must take over target acquisition and programming. This fact was revealed by a leaked, wiretapped conversation between high-ranking German officers discussing an attack on the Crimean Bridge—an important civilian and logistical link that supplies more than 2 million people.
The German media and political class responded with outrage—not over the plan to destroy civilian infrastructure, but over the leak itself.
Public Opinion Rejected Taurus—But Was Ignored
A clear majority of German citizens oppose the use of Taurus missiles by Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia. Yet the government charged forward, dismissing the popular will.
Poll: Large Majority Against Taurus Delivery – ZEIT ONLINE (March 2024)
What we’re witnessing is not just a policy disagreement. It is the willful disregard of public opposition in favor of a dangerous, ideologically driven escalation.
The German propaganda referenced above made the following claim: ‘The SOVIET ARMY—a terrible threat to Europe. The conquest of Europe—the goal of the Bolshevik attack army.’ Today, German propaganda once again employs widespread scaremongering against Russia. Critical voices in the media and academia are increasingly suppressed, creating an environment so repressive that even pro-peace advocates risk losing their livelihoods.
German Revanchism Is Back
Germany was once the most aggressive military power in Europe. It was the driving force behind two world wars, committed atrocities of unimaginable proportions, and considered Slavic peoples to be inferior. Between 1941 and 1945, more than two dozen million Soviet citizens were killed by German troops in a war that was portrayed as a race crusade.
After its defeat in 1945, Germany was demilitarized, and its constitution outlawed wars of aggression. The lesson seemed to stick. For decades, German politicians—conservative and liberal alike—promoted peace, trade, and restraint. As Franz Josef Strauss famously put it:
“Whoever wants to pick up a rifle again, let his hand fall off.”
But that era is now over.
From Ostpolitik to Open Hostility
In the 1970s, Chancellor Willy Brandt initiated Ostpolitik, a policy of détente with the Eastern Bloc that prioritized peaceful relations, trade, and diplomatic engagement. His successors, both center-left and conservative, continued that tradition—even under the Cold War’s shadow.
Today’s German leadership has flipped that approach on its head.
The governments of Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz have replaced diplomacy with military escalation, sanctions, and openly stated goals of “ruining Russia.” Germany is now the second largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine after the United States. These weapons are intended to fuel a war that could have been avoided, that Russia did not want, but that its Western opponents planned long before it broke out.
Rearmament and the Return of Conscription
In 2011, Germany suspended mandatory military service. But now, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has proposed reintroducing conscription as early as 2026. His stated goal? To prepare Germany to mobilize 460,000 troops and reservists.
This may sound like a typical defense policy update—but it’s not. It’s a clear violation of a binding international agreement.
Violating the 2+4 Treaty
The Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany (the “2+4 Treaty”), signed in 1990, laid out the terms of Germany’s reunification. Among its most critical components was a strict limit on troop strength:
“The Government of the Federal Republic of Germany undertakes to reduce the personnel strength of the armed forces of the united Germany to 370,000.”
This wasn’t a symbolic gesture. The limit was put in place to prevent Germany from becoming a dominant military power again. It was meant to reassure Europe—particularly Russia—that a reunified Germany would never again pose a military threat.
Germany’s plan to exceed this by 90,000 troops would break this international agreement.
Broken Promises and Legal Loopholes
This wouldn’t be the first time Germany has found ways around its postwar commitments.
The same treaty also states:
“The Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic reaffirm their renunciation of the manufacture, possession, and control over nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.”
Yet Germany currently hosts at least 20 U.S. nuclear warheads as part of NATO’s so-called “nuclear sharing” program. The official claim is that Germany doesn’t “possess” these weapons—but they are stored on German soil, on German airbases, to be delivered by German aircraft in the event of war.
This violates not just the spirit, but arguably the letter, of the treaty.
Treaties Must Mean Something
Some argue that the 2+4 Treaty no longer applies—that it’s outdated, irrelevant to today’s geopolitical landscape. But this argument misses the point.
The treaty wasn’t only about technical limits. It was about trust.
If Germany abandons these commitments now—on troop numbers, nuclear presence, and peaceful policy—it signals to the world that treaties signed with the West are paper-thin.
And in a time of rising militarism, collapsing diplomacy, and great-power conflict, that’s a deeply dangerous signal.
Another Escalation Spiral
Germany is not alone. Across Europe, governments are rearming at record speed. Military budgets are soaring. And Russia, for its part, continues to pursue aggressive aims in Ukraine.
But there is one critical difference: Russia has not signed any treaty limiting its force structure. Germany has.
By exceeding treaty limits and engaging directly in targeting military operations inside Russia, Germany is escalating the conflict and weakening the international norms that helped preserve peace in Europe for decades.
We’ve seen this story before—from Napoleon to the German Kaiser to Hitler. Each time, European powers dreamed of breaking Russia. Each time, it ended in disaster.
Who Will Pay the Price?
Already, many in the West seem comfortable fighting “to the last Ukrainian.” Increasingly, it appears they are preparing to fight to the last German, French, or Swedish citizen as well.
This is not speculation. This is historical amnesia in real time.
According to polls, most Germans now see Russia as an enemy, despite the fact that there is no evidence Russia has any intent to attack Germany or the rest of Europe.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Merz is lighting the fuse.
Unless stopped, this could become the last world war.