Professor Ilan Pappé, a prominent Israeli historian of the modern Middle East and director of the European Center for Palestinian Studies at the University of Exeter’s College of Social Sciences and International Studies, is known for his research on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His books include The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine, Lobbying for Zionism, and his latest, Israel on the Brink, which analyzes internal and external pressures threatening Israel’s future.
Key Themes and Arguments
1. Israel as a Collapsing State and Ideological Project
Pappé argues that Israel, conceived as both a political entity and an ideological project, is facing internal collapse. The combination of Zionism’s historical imposition of a European-style state on Arab land and the internal struggle to define Judaism as a nationalist rather than purely religious identity has created profound societal fractures.
2. Internal Fractures within Israeli Society
- A growing divide exists between the secular, liberal state of Israel and the religious, nationalist “State of Judea,” centered on settlements and Orthodox communities.
- The “State of Judea” seeks a messianic, theocratic vision rooted in biblical interpretations and aims to extend influence beyond Palestine, often disregarding democracy and human rights.
- The secular camp attempted to reconcile universal democratic values with a Jewish ethnic state but failed to maintain legitimacy or address the dispossession of Palestinians.
3. Generational Disassociation from Zionism
Younger Jews, especially in Israel and the diaspora (particularly the U.S.), are increasingly disassociating from Zionist ideology. Without their support, Israel struggles to sustain a war economy and maintain political, economic, and moral legitimacy.
4. External Isolation and Declining Allies
- Israel is losing traditional allies due to its policies toward Palestinians and aggressive military actions.
- Globally, civil society increasingly views Israel as a pariah state, potentially influencing governments, economic elites, and international investment.
- American support, long a pillar of Israel’s power, may not be indefinite, particularly as younger political generations in the U.S. grow more critical of Israel.
5. The Palestinian Factor
- Palestinian society, though politically fragmented, is young, educated, and increasingly assertive. Future leadership is likely to adopt more decisive strategies for liberation and decolonization.
- This demographic shift could interact with Israel’s internal weaknesses to alter the balance of power.
6. Economic and Military Pressures
- Israel faces a prolonged war economy, unsustainable over decades.
- The myth of military invincibility, especially regarding the IDF, has been challenged, notably after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. Prolonged conflict on Israeli soil exposes vulnerabilities even against smaller, irregular forces.
7. The Role of Zionist Advocacy Networks (AIPAC etc.)
- Advocacy networks, particularly in the U.S. and U.K., historically shaped foreign policy and public discourse to maintain support for Israel.
- Over time, these networks have become more focused on preserving their own power than advancing Israel’s interests.
- Their influence faces erosion due to informed younger generations, social media, and critical civil society engagement.
8. Historical and Cyclical Perspective
Pappé frames current events within broader historical patterns: populist, authoritarian, and expansionist powers rise and fall. Unsustainable ideological states, like Israel’s, are likely to confront transformative change.
9. Global Justice and Intersectionality
- Pappé emphasizes global cooperation to address systemic issues—climate change, economic inequality, and human rights—which intersect with the Palestinian struggle.
- Localized solutions are insufficient; systemic, international approaches are necessary.
10. Concluding Points
- Israel’s future is precarious due to internal fractures, generational disaffection with Zionism, declining global support, unsustainable war economy pressures, and challenged military myths.
- A post-October 7th reality may teach Israeli society that survival cannot rely solely on violence or military dominance.
- Humane coexistence remains possible if ideological perspectives, particularly regarding Palestinians, are transformed.
Overall Message
Pappé delivers a sobering diagnosis: Israel’s state structure and ideological project face simultaneous internal, external, demographic, economic, and military pressures. Collapse is not inevitable, but it is highly probable given these converging trends. Long-term survival depends on substantial changes in ideology, societal cohesion, and global relations.
Contextual Commentary: Melanie Phillips and the West
Melanie Phillips, formerly of The Guardian, last week declared that Palestine doesn’t exist, all land between the river and the sea belongs to Jews, Christianity is a Jewish sect, and Islam is a “death cult.” She spoke at a conference called Rage Against Hate—with zero irony, as all the hate came from the stage.
Phillips attacks diaspora Jews—though she is one herself—as too soft, too defensive, too Talmudic. She calls for aggression, invoking biblical warriors who killed “real people.” By her logic, the 78,000 Palestinians already killed—and perhaps 100,000 including indirect deaths—are mere collateral. Most are women and children, many burned alive. Brave? Hardly.
Her position illustrates a dangerous reality: when even diaspora Jews, who could serve as a voice of conscience, foster hateful views instead of challenging extremism inside Israel, nothing constructive can be expected. Silence—or worse, active promotion of aggression—strengthens hardliners and leaves space for violence and human rights abuses to continue unchallenged.
Her honesty is striking: Israel will never stop fighting. For decades, liberals clung to myths that peace was possible through moderation. Now, Phillips and zealots insist Israel has a divine right to expand beyond its borders. This message is already reshaping political support: an Israel permanently at war increasingly implies an America permanently at war—and many Americans, especially younger generations, do not like it.
Israel’s war is no secret. Gaza has endured 350 deaths in at least 500 ceasefire violations. Lebanon mirrors this pattern: Hezbollah withdraws, Israel stays, bombs, kills. Retreat invites more aggression. Israel recently assassinated Hayam Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah’s chief of staff in Beirut—a clear provocation.
In southern Syria, Israel seized land the size of Gaza without firing a shot, parading there with cabinet ministers. Netanyahu demanded permanent access to Kurdish regions and inspection rights over Syrian weapons. Southern Syria is now a staging ground for attacks on Iran. Tehran has promised to respond offensively next time, punishing countries that allow Israel to use their territory as a launchpad.
Regionally, further airstrikes and missile attacks seem inevitable. In Gaza, progress is nonexistent. No Arab or Muslim state will deploy troops to an international stabilization force without a clear mandate or path to Palestinian statehood. Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, UAE, Indonesia—even Singapore—refused. The UN’s “Board of Peace” is a paper tiger: no members, no money, no plan. Empty resolutions cannot stop war.
Netanyahu will escalate. Phillips will cheer. More blood will be spilled. Her Islamophobia won’t stop her from dominating BBC panels or dodging scrutiny.
She is right about one thing: the West is sinking. But it isn’t external threats dragging it down—it’s the pandering to extremists like her and the failure of diaspora voices to confront the destructive extremism entrenched within Israel.